Technical Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS65 KREV 280726
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1226 AM PDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Mild weather will continue today. A couple of dry cold frontal
passages will bring cooler weather and breezy winds Monday through
Wednesday. Otherwise, this week will be dry and seasonably warm
with increasing shower chances next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

After a cool, wet Friday, we dried out and warmed back up
to average temperatures on Saturday. Our warmup continues today
as a weak ridge moves into the region. High temperatures will
increase around 2-5 degrees, also ending up about 2-5 degrees
above average for late April. Skies will become mostly clear by
the late morning, along with typical westerly breezes this
afternoon. Overall, it will be a very nice Sunday.

On Monday, a trough will move into the Pac NW with a weak dry
front moving through northeast CA/northern NV. For northern
Washoe, northern Lassen, and the Surprise Valley temperatures will
fall around 5-10 degrees, ending up roughly 4-8 degrees below
average. Elsewhere, temperatures will fall to around average for
southern Lassen County through the greater Lake Tahoe region, as
well as into the Reno metro area. This front will have little
effect on temperatures in Mono and Mineral counties, where
readings will remain near to slightly above average. North to
northwest winds will become breezy during Monday afternoon with
this front, with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph from the early
afternoon into the evening. A slight 2-4 degree warmup is
anticipated for Tuesday, with breezy west/northwest winds once
again during the afternoon and evening.

A further cooldown is in store on Wednesday as a trough and cold
front drops south through Great Basin, shifting winds to the
north. Temperatures will tumble around 5-10 degrees (except
remaining at already cool levels near the OR border), leaving the
region below average for the first day of May. The trough moves
east Thursday with weak ridging returning through early Saturday,
followed by some increased winds as the ridge shifts to the east.
Blended guidance warms temperatures back above seasonal averages
especially Friday and Saturday. By the end of next weekend, the
ensembles fall further out of agreement with either a deep upper
low, or more zonal flow/weak ridging. The next chances of
precipitation could also return by next Saturday night and Sunday,
but confidence remains low.
-McKellar

&&

.AVIATION...

* Widespread VFR conditions prevail through the next few days.
  Today`s winds will be generally light for the Tahoe area
  terminals, with typical west breezes (gusts around 20 kt)
  between 21Z-04Z for the other eastern CA and far western NV
  terminals.

* A dry cold front will induce a wind shift (W to NW/N) Monday
  afternoon, so there may be an attendant increase in LLWS during
  this time frame. In addition, sustained west/northwest winds of
  15-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts are expected for the western
  NV terminals. Meanwhile, Sierra terminals will see sustained
  west winds of 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts.
-McKellar

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

NWS REV Office Area Forecast Discussion