Reno Area Technical Forecast Discussion

Technical Forecast Discussion

FXUS65 KREV 252043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
143 PM PDT Tue Apr 25 2017


Cool and windy conditions with light showers for Wednesday as low
pressure moves through northern Nevada. Temperatures will remain
on the cool side through the end of the week. High pressure
should return for a warm and dry weekend.



Large scale pattern of high pressure over the eastern Pacific and
a deep trough over the Rockies/Central Plains will maintain a
strong northwest flow aloft. With the jet overhead the next few
days, cool conditions and periods of gusty winds will persist into

Main issue are the winds for Wednesday as low pressure and a cold
front move through northern Nevada. Strong surface gradient will
set up along and ahead of the front with support from the jet
stream to create a 20-35 mph sustained wind event across much of
the eastern Sierra and western Nevada. Gusts of 35-55 mph will
kick up roughly from 10am to 10pm causing travel difficulties for
high profile vehicles and those heading out to boat and/or fish on
area lakes. Those traveling across the state on I-80, US-50
US-395/I-580 and US-95 should be prepared for a longer than normal
commute due to the winds.

There will be some shower activity as the front rolls through
the region on Wednesday with best chances along the Sierra north
of Sonora Pass and much of northwest Nevada. Liquid amounts will
be light, likely less than 0.25 inch, but with snow levels well
above 7000 feet travel impacts could be limited to wet roads.

For Thursday and Friday, surface gradients remain strong but
winds appear to be lighter than Wednesday. However gusts of 30-35
mph will still impact those heading out to boat and/or fish.
Afternoon highs will feel chilly with the winds with valleys highs
in the mid 50s to mid 60s and 50s to low 60s in the Sierra/Mono
County. Brong

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...

No significant changes were necessary to the long-term forecast.
Models remain consistent showing an eastern Pacific ridge shifting
eastward over the weekend. This will result in a warming period
through at least Sunday. Expect increased runoff into area rivers
as temperatures rise. While flooding is not anticipated, rivers
will remain unsafe due to fast flows and frigid water

Models have lost some run-to-run consistency over the last 24hrs
from next Monday onward. Last night`s runs showed a backdoor front
early next week while the most recent runs maintain an eastward
placement of the ridge axis. Expect these modeling variabilities
to continue until a more significant upper level disturbance moves
through the pattern. As such, the forecast may shift slightly
warmer for earlier next week if the next runs favor an eastward
depiction of the Pacific ridge axis.

There is the suggestion that a more significant wave may approach
the west coast by next weekend. However, global models have the
tendency to shift large patterns like the east Pacific ridge much
too quickly at 7+ day time scales. Forecaster confidence is very
low past Tuesday. Boyd



Conditions are VFR with light breezes early this afternoon. Expect
a slight increase in winds with gusts up to 25kts later today.

Winds will increase more substantially for Wednesday as the
surface pressure gradient tightens across the region with a
passing open wave. Gusts for Sierra and Sierra Front terminals
will range 25-35kts; sustained winds around 20-25kts. Gusts will
be higher, around 45kts, for the Basin and Range including NFL,
HTH, LOL, and other central Nevada terminals. Expect mountain
wave turbulence as well as the potential for pockets of LLWS where
terrain induces differing SFC winds. While there will not be too
much in the way of precipitation accumulation, there will be
sufficient moisture for widespread mountain obscuration in the

Winds lessen by Thursday, but remain breezy into the weekend. Boyd


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday NVZ001-004.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday NVZ005.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for Lake
     Tahoe in NVZ002.

CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday CAZ070.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for Lake
     Tahoe in CAZ072.



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