Technical Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS65 KREV 270844
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
144 AM PDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers are possible late this afternoon and evening for
areas north of Interstate 80 and into west central NV. After
that, our warming and drying trend begins until a dry cold front
drops in by the middle of next week. There are signals for a more
unsettled weather pattern extending into the first weekend of May.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The majority of the light overnight showers and storms have tapered
off early this morning, but we aren`t quite done yet. While coverage
won`t be as extensive today, there will be another round of isolated
showers as an upper level wave sneaks across the northern portion of
the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Showers will start
across northern Lassen and Plumas counties around 4 pm and then
translate eastward across western Nevada (~6 pm) into the Basin
and Range (~7 pm). After sunset, the majority of the showers will
will most likely set up in Churchill and Pershing counties, and
then rapidly clear out after midnight.

For Sunday into Tuesday, the warming and drying trend really takes
hold with gradual warming each day, typical afternoon breezes, and
little to no chances for showers. The main exception will be near
the OR border for possible showers Monday depending on the
southern reach of the next passing shortwave, resulting in a
potential delay before these areas see much warming. Highs are
expected to return to the 60s and 70s for the first half of next
week, except areas north of Gerlach to the OR border could have a
harder time getting above 60.

On Wednesday, it may be the beginning of the end of the mild
weather. Latest models show a trough dropping into the Basin and
Range, which will swing a backdoor cold front through western
Nevada. This dry, cold front will kick up some brisk northerly winds
and pump the brakes on the warming temperature trend, except
maybe a brief warmup by next Friday. Beyond Wednesday though,
ensemble cluster guidance continues to show more disparities with
the GEFS (wetter, more active) and the ECMWF holding onto weak
ridging (warmer, drier) through next weekend. While there isn`t a
strong signal for a significant storm or rain event, the forecast
is still leaning toward cooler, and more active weather for the
first weekend of May.

-Edan

&&

.AVIATION...

* KTRK and KTVL will contend with bouts of freezing fog through 18z.
  Otherwise, VFR conditions for the Sierra and western NV terminals
  today and Sunday.

* FL100 winds remain northerly today, but will be less than
  yesterday. Plan on typical afternoon breezes this weekend with
  northerly winds today and then shifting back to our typical
  westerly breezes on Sunday.

* An upper level wave drops through around 00-06z Sunday bringing
  isolated showers to the Sierra and western NV. Showers will kick
  off first across Lassen, Plumas, northern Washoe counties
  (20-40% chances) and then spread quickly eastward into the Basin
  and Range (10-20% chances).

-Edan

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

NWS REV Office Area Forecast Discussion