Technical Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS65 KREV 092031
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1231 PM PST Thu Jan 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

* After a warmer Friday, a dry cold front will bring increased
  breezes and cooler temperatures this weekend.

* Outside of low chances of showers near the Oregon border on
  Friday, dry weather will prevail through next week.

* No significant winter storms and meaningful snowfall expected
  through at least the middle of the month.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Those of you with an appetite for wetting rains and heavy snow will
have to keep waiting. Stubborn high pressure in the eastern
Pacific prevents significant winter storms from reaching our area
through at least the next week, perhaps longer. Rather, we`ll have
a steady diet of quick-moving, slider-type "storms" that may
bring occasional light rain and snow, increased breezes, and doses
of colder air that rudely interrupts our otherwise mild
temperatures (unless you`re a cold weather enthusiast, of course).

Friday will likely be the warmest day of the next seven with
daytime highs in the upper 40s and 50s, though a cold frontal
passage Friday evening will yield a sharp cooldown this weekend as
highs only reach the 30s and low 40s. It`ll also be bitterly cold
each night into the early morning as temperatures fall into the
teens and 20s. The exception will be for cold-prone locales such
as Truckee, Bodie, Bridgeport where lows flirt with sub-zero
temperatures over the weekend.

Breezy west winds Friday afternoon will shift to a brisk northerly
wind Friday night as the cold front moves through with occasional
gusts of 20-30 mph likely, especially in parts of Mineral and
southern Mono counties. Meanwhile, Sierra crest winds will remain
elevated much of this weekend, but notably strong Saturday evening
when N/NE winds gust up to 80 mph. Minimal rain and snow is
expected with a 5-10% chance of light showers near the OR border and
east of US-95.

Close succession of these slider-type troughs will maintain chilly
weather into Monday, which appears to be the coldest day of the
week as highs struggle to exceed the 40F mark and downright
frigid Tuesday AM commute with temps in the teens or lower. It`ll
slowly warm up back towards seasonal averages after Monday with
dry conditions favored throughout next week. The only hint of any
rain or snow will be around midweek as a closed low begins to lift
northeastward, but odds are very low (below 15%) and confined to
areas south of US-50. The latest suite of ensembles keep us mostly
dry through the middle of the month with a more active weather
pattern possible during the final week of January.

-Salas

&&

.AVIATION...

The main weather impact will be LLWS and mountain wave turbulence
issues Friday afternoon into the weekend. Westerly FL100 winds will
increase to 35-45 kts after 21Z Friday before weakening and shifting
to N/NW after 03Z Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep
through regional terminals between 06Z and 12Z Sat, lending to
some LLWS potential during this time frame. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail into the weekend.

-Salas

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

NWS REV Office Area Forecast Discussion